Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

956
FXAK68 PAFC 300034
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
434 PM AKDT Thu May 29 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Low pressure situated just south of Resurrection Bay this
afternoon is drifting slowly to the north-northwest. Ahead of this
low, bands of moderate to heavy showers continue to stream into
Prince William Sound and the eastern Kenai Peninsula. A coastal
ridge has also built along the Chugach Mountains. This ridge, in
combination with lower pressures inland due to a digging trough
over western Alaska, has resulted in strong southerly gap winds
from Turnagain Arm to the Kink River Valley and Copper River
Basin. Temperatures this afternoon are not quite as warm as
yesterday due to increased cloud cover.

Models are struggling just a bit when it comes to the exact track
of the low, with hi-res guidance driving the low north and the NAM
and GFS trying to continue its more westward jog. The overall
solution looks to be somewhere in the middle, as the center of
circulation inches closer to the coastline. Winds will continue to
ramp up this afternoon and evening as the low and upper-level
trough move inland and the coastal ridge builds to its maximum
extent. The winds are expected to slowly diminish from their peak
for the Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska Valley overnight; however,
the strong wind gusts should persist across the Copper River Basin
through at least mid-morning Friday. The gradient only weakens
though, so southeasterly winds and gusts will persist through
Friday, albeit a bit weaker than what has been observed thus far
today.

A few scattered showers, and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm,
will be possible across the northern Susitna and Copper River
Valleys through late this evening.

More widespread shower activity will then slowly move into the
western portions of Southcentral for Friday as the trough digging
south over Southwest Alaska negatively tilts and moves eastward
along with a newly developing surface low near the Barren Islands.
The southeasterly gap winds will likely keep the lower levels of
the atmosphere across the lee of the Chugach dry, leading to
mainly virga or a few sprinkles through late afternoon or evening.
A trailing wave moving east from Southwest Alaska will then catch
up to the first as it and the surface low both stall. Winds near
the surface then look to diminish as winds aloft shift more
southerly and southwesterly. This will likely lead to light rain
filling in from Northern Cook Inlet across Anchorage and the
Matanuska Valley late Friday into Saturday.

Models then diverge as to how quickly this trough lifts northeast
on Saturday. Showers will likely develop across the Copper River
Basin, but may also linger from the western Kenai peninsula north
into the Mat-Su Valleys if the slower solutions prevail.

-TM/PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Sunday)...

An upper-level trough digging across Southwest Alaska is
supporting a band of stratiform rain along the Western Alaska
Range north and east of Iliamna, along with some scattered rain
showers across portions of Bristol Bay this afternoon. The trough
shifts east tonight, clearing out precipitation from west to east
through Friday morning. Behind the trough, cold air overspreading
the region will keep high temperatures to around 50 degrees or
lower this afternoon/evening as well as tomorrow. Overnight
temperatures are expected to approach freezing tonight, with
locations in the Kuskokwim River Valley and Kuskokwim Delta
dipping below freezing.

Weak ridging across the Bering Sea and Aleutians will keep
relatively calm conditions in place along with widespread stratus.
Breezy conditions for the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula
last through tonight with consistent northerly flow funneling
through favorable bays and passes. Then, a broad low drops down
from the northern Bering Sea on Friday, bringing widespread rain
and enhanced southwesterly winds to the western and central
Bering into Saturday. The southern reaches of this system will
lightly clip the Aleutian Chain, but largely stay offshore of
mainland Alaska. However, light onshore flow will combine with
very high astronomical tides to produce a coastal flooding threat
along the Kuskokwim Delta coast. Low-lying communities such as
Kipnuk and Kwigillingok are likely to see water levels 1.5 to 2.5
feet above the normal highest tide line during the high tide on
Friday afternoon, which could contribute to minor flooding. For
this reason, a coastal flood advisory has been issued. The light
southerly flow on Saturday will also warm temperatures back into
the 50s during the daytime for Southwest Alaska.

A North Pacific low lifts up early Saturday morning, bringing
more significant moisture and gale force winds to the eastern
Aleutians/Bering Sea and Alaska Peninsula heading into the
weekend. Energy from this system looks to phase with the broad
Bering low, pushing high-end gale force southeasterly winds up
along the Southwest coast Saturday night. The strong along-shore
winds will cause an onshore surge of water, keeping the Kuskokwim
Delta coast at risk for coastal flooding again Saturday and Sunday
afternoon/evening around high tide. Water levels are expected to
recede between the main high tides each day. Light to moderate
rain spreads inland with the front on Sunday morning. The front
slowly pushes inland through Sunday, keeping temperatures
moderated and gradually weakening through the day.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

On the Alaska Weather map, a broad upper level low stretches from
Siberia into Western Alaska. This is anchored by an unseasonably
deep closed low over the Southern Bering that weakens and slips
over the Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf of Alaska through
Thursday. A couple of significant troughs remain over the Bering
as some shortwaves pass through the pattern during the forecast
period. Forecast confidence rests with the GFS and Canadian models
with the larger features, but is mixed in conjunction with the
smaller details. An active weather pattern persists along and over
most of Southern Alaska through the week.

A well developed surface low in the West Central Bering wraps a
front across the Northern Bering into Southwest Alaska. The front
continues to stretch along the Southcentral coast with moderate to
locally heavy rain. Showers are expected across the Southern half
of the state, with possible thunderstorms South of the Alaska
Range. A second portion of this low spreads moderate to locally
heavy rain and gusty winds over the Central and Eastern Aleutians
that will move over the AKPEN into Southwest Alaska Tuesday and
Wednesday. After a loop around Bristol Bay late Tuesday into
Wednesday, the low will cross the AKPEN and continue the moderate
to heavy rain and gusty winds over Kodiak Island and across the
Gulf of Alaska through Thursday. A new North Pacific low and front
push towards the Central Aleutians for Thursday.

- Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through much of the TAF period.
Breezy southeast winds out of the Turnagain arm have already
produced gusts in excess of 35 kts and will continue to do so
through the early overnight hours before moderating a bit. A
trough may bring some light precip to the area overnight into
tomorrow morning, but should remain light enough such that
conditions remain VFR. Another trough passage is expected to bring
rain and somewhat lower cloud cover later on Friday.

&&


$$